In order to predict climate change in the coming years, scientists use Global Climate Models, or GCMs for short. They project area-specific effects of climate change, and even simulates adaptation strategies for these potential changes. The range of prediction, however, is always so large so often times there are a lot of uncertainties with these global climate models. These include the scale of greenhouse gas concentrations that directly impact the energy balance in a given area, A climate system’s sensitivity to certain climate drivers, climate variability, and local exclusives such as occasional breezes and heat waves. While these factors absolutely cannot be excluded, accurate global climate models combat the uncertainties by minimizing the information about them.
It is highly unlikely that a global climate model will be one hundred percent accurate on its simulation on the time span it covers, or that the future will follow a single emissions scenario, but what’s important is that these models give us a possible climate emission, and plans can be made accordingly to the possible coming climates.
